Thursday, June 26, 2008

RIMM reports

This Q and outlook disappointing. Revs came in $2.24B vs St $2.27B; Net adds 2.3MM vs. St ~2.4-2.5M; EPS came in $0.84 vs. St $0.85. For next Q, sees revs $2.55-2.65B vs. St $2.439B; Sees net adds 2.6M for Aug Q vs. St ~2.4-2.5M; Sees EPS $0.84-0.89 vs. St 0.90 = lighter than plan. Nothing specific on the Bold – just that will be out "this summer" – "BlackBerry Bold will be available this Summer with specific launch date varying by carrier. We've already made the Bold available to carriers for testing. It's performing well and meeting RIMs stringent requirements for bringing the product to market in partnership with our carrier partners". They say guidance really assumes Bold starts to ramp in FQ3 and beyond.

Bottom Line – results for May and the Aug outlook both are lighter than expected; May EPS could have been even worse as they were helped by tax rate. The top line trends are OK (shipments and adds), but the problem is opex spending, which was higher for May and guided for Aug to stay elevated. Mgmt on the call alluded to a very strong H2 and said spending was to support that outlook. for Aug, said guidance doesn't assume much from Bold (which they say will really kick in during FQ3+).

Revs came in $2.24B vs St $2.272B = a bit light
Net adds 2.3MM vs. St ~2.3MM = approx. inline
Shipped 5.4MM devices in the Q vs. St 5.5MM = a bit light
EPS came in .84 vs. St .85 = below expectations
For next Q, sees revs 2.55-2.65B vs. St 2.439B = a bit better
Sees net adds 2.6MM for Aug Q vs. St ~2.4-2.5MM = a bit better
Sees shipments north of 6MM for Aug Q (St looking for a bit north of 6MM too, so this is about inline)
Sees EPS .84-.89 vs. St .90 = lighter than plan
Says the enterprise business is performing well
Expects gross margin for Q2 to be slightly lower than Q1 at approximately 50.5%.
Nothing specific on the Bold – just that will be out "this summer" – "BlackBerry Bold will be available this Summer with specific launch date varying by carrier. We've already made the Bold available to carriers for testing. It's performing well and meeting RIMs stringent requirements for bringing the product to market in partnership with our carrier partners". They say guidance really assumes Bold starts to ramp in FQ3 and beyond.

Says co Gearing Up For What Could Be Strongest 2nd Half Ever
Channel inventory at the end of Q1 was up just slightly from Q4
Device ASPs in the quarter were approximately $341. We expect ASPs in Q2 to be slightly higher than Q1 at approximately $350

The tax rate for the quarter was approximately 27.5%, slightly lower than our forecast; The impact of this favorability in the tax rate was approximately $.02 per share.

They received a lot of questions on the SG&A spending front – opex came in higher than expected. Mgmt implies spending on the opex front could remain healthy going forward as they continue to support new pdct launches. There was some suggestion that op leverage will appear in the model during the back half of the year – says setting up for a very strong H2 launch.

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