At the UBS Media Conference, three industry advertising forecasters, Bob Coen of IPG’s MAGNA, Publicis’ ZenithOptimedia, and WPP's GroupM, provided updated advertising forecasts for 2009. All three revised downward their estimates due to the economy.
Surprisingly, they called for strong growth in Internet advertising, with Zenith providing the most optimistic growth of 18% growth over 2008 and GroupM providing growth of 10%. With the challenges that we are currently seeing in display and classified online advertising, the 18% growth estimate seems extremely aggressive to me.
My guess is that the true growth number comes in at around the low-teens, being largely supported by online search, which itself may come under pressure. The truth is, no one really knows what awaits us in 2009, and any sort of forecasts today are just numbers on paper, and cannot be assigned much weight.
Another interesting forecast is from Zenith, who is calling for global Internet advertising to grow to 15.6% the total advertising pie in 2009. Not sure where the number is today but I assume it is around 7% so they are calling for a significant ramp in Internet spend, or for a significant decline in the other forms of advertising, while Internet advertising holds steady. Either way, that number seems aggressive to me and my own thinking suggests that by 2011, Internet advertising will inch up towards 10% of the mix.
Key Highlights for 2009:
• Zenith projects US ad spending down 6.2%
• GroupM projects U.S. ad spending down 3.2%
• Coen projects a 7.6% decline in local U.S. advertising vs. a 3% decline for U.S. national
• The three provided global forecasts of between -0.2% and -0.3%
• Global Internet Advertising: Zenith called for 18% YoY growth; GroupM is
looking for 10% vs. 22% in 2008
• Zenith projects that Internet advertising will represent 15.6% of global spend in
2011
• TV spending should hold up under pressure
• Ad spending faces difficult comps due to Olympics and political ad spending
Monday, December 8, 2008
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I feel Zenith will be near the money on their prediction. In particular, with their call for global Internet advertising to grow to 15.6% of the total Global advertising pie in 2009.
ReplyDeleteRead my post here on Yahoo to see why.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_G/threadview?m=tm&bn=25263&tid=1242875&mid=1243217&tof=10&rt=2&frt=2&off=1
Then join here and read ALL (well, enough to convince you) about the World News (newspaper consortium involving some 20,000 odd sites), that will be the platform to enable that growth, as has been predicted by Zenith.
http://www.sharecafe.com.au/board.asp?a=BV&boardid=2117&sym=LOK&lot=0&ps=0
FWIW - Cheers!!
Basic scissor Lifts
ReplyDeletetables are usually mobile (they have rollers) and their loading capacity can vary from 330 lbs to 1650 lbs depending on the model.